by Tom Anderson
Despite tax credits dwindling with sales, and the state of California reaching its limit for carpool exemption stickers to distribute, automotive industry experts say sales of hybrid electric vehicles like the Toyota Prius show no signs of slowing down. If anything, hybrids are poised to evolve into even more efficient and even more mainstream vehicles as the demands for improved fuel economy and reduced emissions increase.
Even though billions of dollars have been and will continue to be spent on research for fuel cells and production of the hydrogen to power them, Dan Neil, Pulitzer Prize-winning automotive critic for the Los Angeles Times, says that money would be much better spent on more realistic solutions.
“I think the concept of plug-in hybrids like the Chevy Volt is going to play a big role,” he said.
But before that can happen, battery technology has to catch up, namely size and weight have to decrease, while storage capacity has to increase.
Yet Neil believes the electric side of the propulsion equation will eventually eclipse the internal-combustion engine side.
Ray Wert, senior editor of the blog Jalopnik.com and frequent guest on CNBC’s “On the Money,” agrees that hybrids also seem to be the best solution for the foreseeable future. He also agrees that the evolution of battery technology will be crucial.
However, Wert believes hybrids will only be part of the solution.
“I think it’s a start in the right direction,” he said.
Neither Neil nor Wert believe those reduced government incentives made available to hybrid buyers will negatively impact sales, even though Neil concedes that the cutbacks obviously won’t help boost sales.
Wert, on the other hand, indicates the loss of such inducements shouldn’t necessarily be lamented.
“Any time you have a governmental incentive for a purchase, you have a lower incentive for the manufacturer to improve and refine the products,” he said. “Governmental intervention generally works better in taxation than in incentivizing.”
In other words, levying an extra tax on gas-guzzlers or even fuel itself would likely have a larger impact on encouraging people to buy more efficient vehicles.
As for renewable fuels like ethanol and biodiesel, Neil believes they simply aren’t worth the trouble. Finding enough arable land to grow the feedstock, the amount of energy required to produce them relative to the amount of energy they yield, and the amount of water required to grow the feedstock is simply not practical, he said.
Nevertheless, Neil feels the most likely scenario will still be quite appealing and effective.
“What I think you’re going to see – what I’d like to see – is hybrid electric or full electric cars charged by clean grid sources” like wind, solar and methane collected from land-fills, he said.
So whatever form the future of automotive power takes, rest assured that electricity will likely play a major role.
